I told you so… well sort of. Did I say I thought Big Brown would win the Belmont Stakes? Yes I did. But who among us, given even odds on all the horses, would not have picked the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner? I did tell you that I wasn’t about to lay the odds that would be asked of Big Brown backers and you shouldn’t either (even if they didn’t quite get to the 1-6 or 1-7 I was thinking). Some of you listened to me, while some (like a friend of mine who shall remain nameless) ignored me and are now poorer for it. “But MFH, didn’t the horse you pick finish out of the money?” Details, details. The important thing is that I told you to stay away from the horse that an overwhelming majority of people were betting on. So my horse finished sixth, at least it wasn’t dead last like one of my Kentucky Derby picks. You know who did finish dead last? Big Brown. What went wrong with him? Rick Dutrow and Co. aren’t sure. Nothing was found to be wrong in his post-race check up. He just had an off day. Wait, where did I read a warning about horses having off days for various reasons? Oh yeah, conveniently it was in MFH’s handicapping of the Belmont Stakes.

The 90,000-plus sweat-soaked people at Belmont Park seemed downright shocked when the longest shot on the board went wire-to-wire in the third jewel of the Triple Crown, denying the undefeated 1-4 favorite the distinction of being the first Triple Crown winner in thirty years. But experienced horse players weren’t shocked. They’ve seen it happen before, and you can bet the vast majority of them had money on a horse not named Big Brown. I say the vast majority because I know for a fact that at least one moron (that’s right, I’m calling you a moron) who was at Belmont Park that day decided to chase a day’s worth of losses with a big bet on a “sure thing” in the Belmont Stakes, despite having stood next to me at Saratoga and watched similar giant favorites go down with near regularity. I almost blame myself. I was supposed to be at Belmont Park too and perhaps if I was I could have talked him out of it (impossible to do over text). Instead I had an obligation elsewhere and I allowed my friend to make a beginners mistake akin to not doubling down on 11 in blackjack. Well friend that shall still remain nameless, I promise you that when we are back in Vegas next year I will make sure you double down on every 11 and I will make sure you properly identify every hooker. That is my pledge to you. But when we are at Saratoga this summer, if you try to bet an odds on favorite that we don’t have inside info on, I’m going to get another friend of ours who shall remain nameless drunk, help him break into your place and allow him to throw up all over your floor… again.

Some of you may remember the debacle that was my Kentucky Derby preview. Those of you that do are probably thinking to yourselves, “This jackass thinks I’m going to listen to what he has to say after the trash he gave me for the Derby?” And I couldn’t blame anyone for thinking that. To bring everyone up to speed, I posited that Big Brown stood a good chance of getting beat as the favorite in the Kentucky Derby and suggested four horses that I thought had the best shot of pulling off the upset. I then stood in the OTB as I watched just as many of my picks finish in the top 10 (1) as finish DEAD LAST. In order to save just a little face I will remind SC nation that over the past five years I have made more money betting on horses than I have lost. Just thought I’d throw that out there. Now on to this weekend’s big event:

This Saturday brings the final jewel of the Triple Crown – The Belmont Stakes. By now you know Big Brown will be attempting to be the first horse to win the Triple Crown since Seattle Slew and Affirmed went back to back thirty years ago. However Big Brown is far from the only horse in recent memory to be the Belmont away from history. Beginning in 1997 we went three straight years with horses taking the Kentucky Derby and Preakness only to falter in the Belmont - Silver Charm, Real Quiet and Charismatic. Since then Big Brown is the forth horse to get fans excited about a possible Triple Crown – War Emblem in ’02, Funny Cide in ’03 and Smarty Jones in ’04. The point is we’ve been here before. Experts and novices alike are already handing Big Brown the Triple Crown. I remember the same thing happening with War Emblem and Smarty Jones who were thought to be invincible heading into the Belmont, only to be upset by lesser horses. Funny things happen in thoroughbred racing, and to go through three of the biggest races in the world back to back to back without any mishaps you have to be almost as lucky as you are good. Horses aren’t machines. They are like any other athletes, and they can have off days. They can lose their focus. They can come out flat. A horse can catch a bad trip for any number of reasons that has nothing to do with him or his jockey.

Here’s why I mention this: The morning line odds on Big Brown are 2-5. 2-5! For those of you who don’t know what that means, it means you have to put up five dollars in the hopes of winning two dollars. That’s ridiculous in a ten horse race. More ridiculous is that Big Brown will go off at worse odds than that. My guess is in the 1-7 range. The reason goes back to my last article on the Kimbo Slice fight (which in true MFH fashion actually contained some humor – not my best work, but not dry technical speak like this). Just like Kimbo slice, there is a TON of hype surrounding Big Brown. People have heard all of the reports about how great he is. People have heard about how he has a chance to be the first Triple Crown winner in thirty years. And people know very little about the rest of the horses in the race. When Affirmed won the Triple Crown in 1978 he took a lot of action simply from people who wanted to say they bet on the Triple Crown winner. There are people who placed bets and never cashed in their ticket, just so they could keep it as a souvenir, and Seattle Slew had just won the freaking thing the year before! What type of action do you think Big Brown will take with no Triple Crown winner in a generation? All of this heavy action drives his odds way down, which drives your potential payoff way down if you bet on him. That’s why the smart money will NOT be betting on Big Brown on Saturday. Don’t get me wrong, many of them, as I, think Big Brown will win the race. He’s clearly the best horse in a very weak field. But you don’t make money betting on 2-5, or worse 1-7 shots. I’ve seen far too many odds on favorites get taken out in my years at Saratoga. And Big Brown has some chinks in his armor. He has a crack in his foot that, despite trainer Richard Dutrow’s comments, can not have him running at 100 percent. He drew the inside post which could prove to be trouble if he doesn’t break well from the gate. He’s raced twice already in five weeks and is about to run further than he’s run in his career – a mile and a half. This has proved to be too much for many great horses (see six mentioned above). All that being said, I give Big Brown a 65% chance to win the Belmont Stakes (that’s a huge percentage in a ten horse race, but still not enough to warrant the odds he’ll be getting).

“So genius,” you say, “who should I bet on?” Well if this were the seventh race on a Friday at Belmont I’d encourage you to stay the hell away from it as that’s what I’d be doing. But since this is the Belmont Stakes, I feel compelled to lay action on it as I suspect some of you do (some may call that a problem, I call it seeking excitement in life). The first horse that intrigues me is the Japanese-bred Casino Drive. The last two Belmont winners were siblings of Casino Drive, showing he has the pedigree to last a mile and a half. He doesn’t hate the track either – Casino Drive looked impressive in winning the Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont last month. However, his only other race was a maiden win in Japan and his preparation for the Belmont has been unorthodox to say the least – no timed works, instead, long meandering walks. Conventional wisdom says you can’t win a mile and half race without a work in over a month, and the lack of works has led some to suggest something may be wrong with Casino Drive. To me though, the biggest negative I see is that Casino Drive is drug-free. Many drugs are routinely used in the United States to keep horses in peak racing shape. The best known is probably Lasix, which prevents bleeding in the lungs. Just about every horse in America now runs on Lasix. In Japan, however, performance enhancing drugs, including Lasix, are illegal. Therefore Casino Drive was trained drug free, he broke his maiden drug free, and his connections claim he’ll be running in the Belmont drug free. That means he’ll be running against horses that are on a different playing field. Just ask Jason Giambi how much drugs help an athlete’s performance (no truth to the rumor that Casino Drive will be running in a gold thong as a substitute for performance enhancing drugs as Giambi did). You can’t ignore a horse with Casino Drive’s pedigree in a race like this, but his odds will have to fall from 7-2 for me to lay action on him.

The other horse I’m eyeing is the only one that didn’t completely embarrass me in the Kentucky Derby – Tale of Ekati. The Wood Memorial winner took 4th in the Derby and has the speed to take this race if Big Brown runs into trouble. Eibar Coa has improved substantially as a rider since he single handedly robbed me of a big score at Saratoga a few years ago with a terrible ride, a ride so bad I considered accosting him on his way to the jockey’s room a la a friend of mine the year prior leading him to be banned for the meet (I’m still a little bitter, could ya tell?). Anyway, to me Tale of Ekati has as good a chance as any (in fact better than most) to take this race should the favorite falter, and at 20-1 you have to love those odds. I just hope he doesn’t finish dead last.

Feel free to heckle me at mfh@subwaychatter.com or just post below

Like MFH, I too was at my local OTB watching the Kentucky Derby on Saturday. It was shaping up to be a good day as I had played a triple box 20- Big Brown, 5- Eight Belles, and 10-Colonel John. The only problem with my bet was that Colonel John decided not to race on Saturday and messed up my shot at glory. I was quite pissed because in every other race he participated in, he hit the board (Meaning either he came first, second, or third for those of you who don’t know follow horse racing, aka our entire readership). (Editor’s note: Don’t feel bad. I had no idea the Derby was even being held this weekend until I flipped it on by accident after the Yankee game) It could have been a HUUUUUUGE day for me because I usually read both the Post and Daily News to pick my horses on Derby Saturday. However, on my way to OTB, I left my Post at home and it happened to mention the other two horses (Dennis of Cork, Recapture the Glory) that hit the board. If I had played a 2-dollar superfecta, I would have won 58,000 dollars roughly. Nevertheless, I learned an important lesson on Saturday: never bet on a horse that raced exclusively on polytrack (the new artificial surface for racetracks, again for everyone doesn’t give two craps about this stuff).

So I was a little off on my Kentucky Derby picks. Perhaps that’s an understatement. Saying I was a little off is like saying Roger Clemens’ choice of mistresses is a little off. It’s like saying Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes are a little off right now. It’s like anyone who watches Tila Tequila is a little off. It’s like… well you get the point. I gave you Tale of Ekati. He finished fourth, not too bad actually. But wait, there’s more. I gave you Z Fortune. He finished tenth. At least he was in the 50th percentile. I gave you Court Vision. Court Vision finished 13th. Ouch. Finally, I gave you Monba to win. Monba finished dead last. Some people run March Madness pools where the last place finisher gets their money back. That’s not the case in the Kentucky Derby. In the Derby, last place just sucks…twenty times over. I’m not sure, but I think there are countries where if you bet on the last place finisher in a twenty horse field you are stoned to death as punishment. But wait, even in such a country I would live on. And not just because I’m so lovable the public would demand amnesty for me. Here’s why…

I went to watch the Derby at a local OTB (Off Track Betting for you non-New Yorkers… and just for the record, we didn’t go to the Chinatown OTB, but it’s just comforting to know that (being addicted to) gambling is a cross-cultural phenomenon) with a couple friends. Before I left I decided to place my exacta bets with my online sports book. I boxed the four horses I picked out in my Derby preview, and then planned on putting the big money down on three of the four to win at OTB. My friends and I arrived at OTB almost an hour before post time and went to the bar for a beer. After we got a round at the bar we moved towards the betting windows to place our bets when an announcement came over the loudspeaker: “Our computers are down. We are doing everything we can to fix the problem as soon as possible.” At this point it was about 35 minutes to post time and I was a little worried that we may not get our bets in. Word began to spread that the computers were down at OTBs all over the state, so calling a friend to place a bet was not an option. Fast forward 35 minutes and the computers were still down and the crowd was beyond restless. One jackass even tried unsuccessfully to get an “OTB sucks” chant going. Yeah chief, that’s going to get the computers fixed. With their computers down across New York State for the final 35 to 40 minutes to post before the Kentucky Derby, OTB lost out on a LOT of money, and thank God for that because after the gate opened I proceeded to watch not a single one of my horses even contend. In fact, at dinner later my buddy Rosie (who hasn’t slept on any girls’ floors lately) put it in perspective: “All of your horses finished behind the horse that died.” That they did.

Speaking of which, Eight Belles, the filly I said had no chance, finished second - well ahead of each and every one of my picks. I was WAY off. It appears I have still yet to figure out the females on the track as well as off of it. Tragically, however, Eight Belles broke both front ankles after her second place finish and had to be put down on the track. That news really is terrible, however as someone who always views the beer glass as half full, at least I won’t have to worry about being dead wrong (haven’t decided whether pun is intended) on her again in the Preakness.

In my defense, I did warn you that I didn’t expect to win, I was seeking value – even though it can (and should) be argued that I didn’t find value in the last place horse no matter what odds (30-1) I got on him. I conceded that Big Brown was the best horse in the race, I just felt there were enough negatives to justify picking against him at such short odds. Big Brown did prove to be the best horse in the Derby, overcoming the 20th post position and a four wide run around the first turn to smoke the field down the stretch in an impressive performance. He’ll be the favorite again in the Preakness and at much shorter odds and he’ll likely win. But I won’t bet on it.

If you would like to destroy me the way I deserve to be destroyed after handicapping the Kentucky Derby like an actual handicapped (mentally) person email me at mfh@subwaychatter.com or leave your comments below.

As Subway Chatter’s resident degenerate, err risk assessment specialist, I have been relied upon to provide good bets each week for the NFL (I excelled), the NCAA football championship (golden), and the Final Four (2 of 3). Well for those of you who don’t know, this Saturday marks the beginning of my favorite season to bet on – The Triple Crown (leading into the summer at Saratoga). I usually do pretty well at Saratoga. I grew up going there so I know the track and I can often spot daily and weekly biases pretty quickly. The Triple Crown is another story. I have to rely solely on general horse racing knowledge and past performance charts for each contender. This year I was also able to view tape of some of the Derby prep races and actually see how each horse performed. After this extensive research I can make one general statement about this year’s Derby field. If you want to win races, you usually stay away from fields like the 2008 Kentucky Derby field. However, if you want to make money, these are the types of fields you look for. I like to find wide open fields where a few horses with decent odds have a shot at taking down the winner and I aim to win about 25% of the time, pulling in 8-1 to 15-1 on my money each time. This is the most wide open Derby field in recent memory. I’d say twelve horses have a legitimate shot at winning this year, giving us several nice options to take down the favorites.

When betting on horses, unless I have inside information, I never bet the favorite. When at Saratoga I like to look for favorites with a weakness and other horses in the field that can exploit those weaknesses. The 2008 Kentucky Derby has three top horses, all of which have key flaws. The top choice, Big Brown at 3-1, is coming off only three career starts. No horse has won the Run for the Roses in its fourth career start since 1915. Curlin tried it last year, and before proving to be a super horse by winning the final two legs of the Triple Crown and the Breeder’s Cup Championship, he got beat in the Derby by Street Sense, proving he was one race short of top form. Additionally, Big Brown has drawn the far outside post position in a twenty horse field. That’s a tough position no matter what (no horse has won out of that position since the advent of the mechanical starting gate), but given that he’s a speed horse and the three horses immediately to his inside will likely come out fast as well, Big Brown could have a very difficult time getting inside before the first turn. Big Brown is probably the best horse in the field, but I don’t think he’s good enough to overcome a tough trip.

The second choice is Colonel John at 4-1. Colonel John is a talented horse with a good post position. My problem with him is that he’s a west coast horse, racing only in California. Out west they race on a synthetic surface, which is tighter and faster than the true dirt that covers the track at Churchill Downs. I generally stay away from horses making this switch, and the reason is twofold. First, the numbers run on a faster track are inflated a little. How much is tough to determine, but inflated numbers generally lead to a horse being over bet by the public (and that kills value). The other problem with a horse making his first start on dirt after a career on the synthetic surface is that it generally takes at least a start to get adjusted to racing on the new surface. Now Colonel John ran a very impressive bullet work at Churchill, which helps alleviate the second problem, but the first one is still there. This is a good horse, but I don’t like him at 4-1, and I actually think he’ll go off less than that.

The third choice at 6-1 is Pyro. Pyro has shown signs of being a very good horse, and runs with the style that I believe will win this race. However, Pyro ran an extremely disappointing Blue Grass Stakes in his last out, finishing tenth. That poor finish can’t even be chalked up to some bad luck, he just looked bad. And how many horses have won the Kentucky Derby coming off a finish of eighth or worse? Zero. It has been suggested that Pyro just hated the polytrack (synthetic dirt) at Keenland, however he hasn’t worked well since – not a good sign.

One horse that has received a lot of attention is Eight Belles – the only filly in the field. She’s run some good numbers but I’m not buying the hype. Only four fillies have won the Kentucky Derby. But beyond that, in my extensive experience betting horses, much like in my social life, I’ve yet to figure out the females. I’ve learned to stay away from all filly fields at Saratoga after repeatedly disastrous results trying to handicap such races. Moreover, any time I’ve felt a filly had a legit shot at taking down the men I’ve been dead wrong. In horses, just as in humans, men are better athletes, period.

So if none of the top three win, which horse is going to do it? I’ve narrowed it down to my top four horses, and depending on how the money goes down on Saturday, at least one of these four is getting the MFH backing:

Z Fortune (15-1) has a nice post position, good connections and ran a great race at the Arkansas Derby in his last out, where he finished a strong second to Gayego, almost overcoming a four wide move around both turns.
Speaking of Gayego, he had an impressive win in the aforementioned Arkansas Derby and is the only horse in the field to post speed ratings of greater than 100 in every start. He must overcome the 19th post position, but if he can set up nicely to stalk the pace he’ll do very well. However, he seems to be the pick a lot of experts are making, which means his odds will plummet come Saturday. That means I stay away.

Court Vision (20-1) has a nice post position and the young phenom Garrett Gomez riding him. He was bred by one of my favorite trainers, Bill Mott, and looked impressive finishing third in the Wood Memorial despite going five wide around the second turn. The second finisher in the Wood, War Pass, would have been the favorite in the Kentucky Derby if not sidelined by an injury.

The winner of the Wood, Tale of Ekati (15-1), makes an intriguing play in the Run for the Roses. Eibar Coa is taking the mount, and I still have burned in my brain the time Eibar screwed me out of a big exacta score at Saratoga with a terrible trip. Nonetheless, that was a few years ago and he’s matured as a rider. Besides, Tale of Ekati looked awfully good in his Wood Memorial win.

Finally we come to Monba (15-1). Monba is trained by Todd Pletcher, among the elite trainers in racing today. Taking the mount is the very capable Ramon Dominguez who, although he’s no Jerry Bailey, is yet to screw me with a bad ride. Monba has a win at Churchill, which means he’s not only familiar with the track, but he likes the surface. He looked good winning the Blue Grass Stakes (the same prep race Street Sense took last year on his way to winning the Derby) over many of the horses in the field Saturday. He ran a 111 speed number that day, which is second best among the field’s last prep races, and he’s on a pattern to improve on that number in the Derby.

I have to make a disclaimer: unlike my NFL or NCAA picks, I don’t expect to win my Kentucky Derby bet. Remember, we’re looking to make money over the long haul here, and the way to do that without inside information is to get good value for your money by finding horses with longer odds that can legitimately take down the favorite. With that in mind, the odds will change - sometimes pretty drastically - as we approach the start so I can’t lock down what my bet will be 36 hours in advance. I have given you the four horses whose odds I will be keeping a close eye on, and if the race went off at the morning lines I’d bet Monba and Court Vision each to win with an exacta box of those two with Z Fortune and Tale of Ekati. Come Saturday around 6pm, I can almost guarantee that changes.

If you have any inside info you’d like to share with me, you can email it to mfh@subwaychatter.com, otherwise leave your thoughts on the Derby below.