We just had our first weekend of football with the College season kicking off on Thursday and all top 25 teams playing by Monday. (I had Utah beating Michigan, by the way. Just ask my friend Gus whom I warned not to bet Michigan as he planned his wagers for the day.) And as much as I love college football, what really excites me about this college football opening weekend is that is signifies the only a few short days until the NFL regular season kicks off. I highly doubt this season will be able to compare to last season strictly football wise. Even if the Giants went undefeated and repeated as Super Bowl Champions, it would still fall short of the improbable post season run the Giants went on last year, with incredibly exciting game after incredibly exciting game, and capped off with the greatest Super Bowl in history. Luckily we as Americans live in a free society and accordingly, along with our right to choose our government, our right to free speech and our ability to practice whatever foolish religion we please, we have the ability to gamble on the NFL. And that, my friends, is what makes this country of ours great.
Just like last year I will guide you through each week of the NFL season and tell you exactly who to put your hard-earned money on in order to make things more interesting outside of the Giants game and your fantasy team. Those of you who followed my advice last year made out quite well, especially in the playoffs, and I sincerely hope I can help you to make even more money this year (particularly since I personally make every single bet I suggest on this site). Also just like last year, I will begin the season with some picks for my favorite prop bet to make: the over/under on regular season wins.
Last year I didn’t do as well with these bets as I did during the season. For every great call I made (how many people believed me that Tampa would win more than 7 games?) there was a big disappointment (where did the browns come off winning ten games?) and I ended up .500 on the over/under win total bets. Believe me I was as frustrated with that performance as those of you the followed me. I spent the offseason doing much self reflection and soul searching, and I feel like I’m ready to come back with an improved performance this season. So without further ado, here are the first MFH bets for the 2008 NFL season:
St. Louis Rams OVER 6 ½: The Rams were decimated by injuries last year. They are not a great team, but they’re not as bad as they looked last year. They play in a bad decision where they get to play Arizona and San Fransisco twice. I think they surprise people and win 8 games this year.
New York Giants OVER 8 ½: I’m breaking a big rule of mine with this bet, but the Giants won ten games last year against a much tougher schedule. Yes they are down Strahan and Umeniora from that team, not to mention Gabril Wilson and Kawika Mitchell, but I think Eli really turned a corner at the end of the season and will show that his postseason play was no fluke. As long as that happens the Giants should win ten again this year.
San Fransisco 49ers UNDER 6 ½: I’m breaking another newly created rule on this one (like anything successful my rules are always evolving). I don’t like going under low win totals for teams who were bad the previous year unless the over/under is especially high. This is because year in and year out the NFL demonstrates its tremendous parity with thought-to-be bad teams providing big upside surprises. We rarely see teams down for very long. The 49ers won five games last season. In this case, however, I can’t see how the 49ers are going to win 7 games this year. I mean their quarterback is JT O’Sullivan. Just who is JT O’Sullivan? Supposedly he’s been in the league for six years but I’ve never heard of him. That doesn’t bode well for the Niners. Because of this and the fact that their offensive line is still sub-par I can’t see San Fransisco celebrating more than 5 wins again this season.
New England Patriots OVER 12: Come on. The Patriots went undefeated last year (that is until they lost to the Super Bowl Champion New York Giants) and their schedule is easier this year (Editor’s note: the easiest in the entire NFL to be exact). They added Jarod Mayo to their linebacking core to give them a little more speed there and more importantly still have Tom Brady, Randy Moss, and Wes Welker. Do I think they’ll go undefeated again? No. But I don’t think they win four less games than last year against easier competition either.
Come back Friday for my Week one bets!
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