MFH recaps the Belmont

I told you so… well sort of. Did I say I thought Big Brown would win the Belmont Stakes? Yes I did. But who among us, given even odds on all the horses, would not have picked the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner? I did tell you that I wasn’t about to lay the odds that would be asked of Big Brown backers and you shouldn’t either (even if they didn’t quite get to the 1-6 or 1-7 I was thinking). Some of you listened to me, while some (like a friend of mine who shall remain nameless) ignored me and are now poorer for it. “But MFH, didn’t the horse you pick finish out of the money?” Details, details. The important thing is that I told you to stay away from the horse that an overwhelming majority of people were betting on. So my horse finished sixth, at least it wasn’t dead last like one of my Kentucky Derby picks. You know who did finish dead last? Big Brown. What went wrong with him? Rick Dutrow and Co. aren’t sure. Nothing was found to be wrong in his post-race check up. He just had an off day. Wait, where did I read a warning about horses having off days for various reasons? Oh yeah, conveniently it was in MFH’s handicapping of the Belmont Stakes.

The 90,000-plus sweat-soaked people at Belmont Park seemed downright shocked when the longest shot on the board went wire-to-wire in the third jewel of the Triple Crown, denying the undefeated 1-4 favorite the distinction of being the first Triple Crown winner in thirty years. But experienced horse players weren’t shocked. They’ve seen it happen before, and you can bet the vast majority of them had money on a horse not named Big Brown. I say the vast majority because I know for a fact that at least one moron (that’s right, I’m calling you a moron) who was at Belmont Park that day decided to chase a day’s worth of losses with a big bet on a “sure thing” in the Belmont Stakes, despite having stood next to me at Saratoga and watched similar giant favorites go down with near regularity. I almost blame myself. I was supposed to be at Belmont Park too and perhaps if I was I could have talked him out of it (impossible to do over text). Instead I had an obligation elsewhere and I allowed my friend to make a beginners mistake akin to not doubling down on 11 in blackjack. Well friend that shall still remain nameless, I promise you that when we are back in Vegas next year I will make sure you double down on every 11 and I will make sure you properly identify every hooker. That is my pledge to you. But when we are at Saratoga this summer, if you try to bet an odds on favorite that we don’t have inside info on, I’m going to get another friend of ours who shall remain nameless drunk, help him break into your place and allow him to throw up all over your floor… again.