MFH’s Derby Roundup

So I was a little off on my Kentucky Derby picks. Perhaps that’s an understatement. Saying I was a little off is like saying Roger Clemens’ choice of mistresses is a little off. It’s like saying Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes are a little off right now. It’s like anyone who watches Tila Tequila is a little off. It’s like… well you get the point. I gave you Tale of Ekati. He finished fourth, not too bad actually. But wait, there’s more. I gave you Z Fortune. He finished tenth. At least he was in the 50th percentile. I gave you Court Vision. Court Vision finished 13th. Ouch. Finally, I gave you Monba to win. Monba finished dead last. Some people run March Madness pools where the last place finisher gets their money back. That’s not the case in the Kentucky Derby. In the Derby, last place just sucks…twenty times over. I’m not sure, but I think there are countries where if you bet on the last place finisher in a twenty horse field you are stoned to death as punishment. But wait, even in such a country I would live on. And not just because I’m so lovable the public would demand amnesty for me. Here’s why…

I went to watch the Derby at a local OTB (Off Track Betting for you non-New Yorkers… and just for the record, we didn’t go to the Chinatown OTB, but it’s just comforting to know that (being addicted to) gambling is a cross-cultural phenomenon) with a couple friends. Before I left I decided to place my exacta bets with my online sports book. I boxed the four horses I picked out in my Derby preview, and then planned on putting the big money down on three of the four to win at OTB. My friends and I arrived at OTB almost an hour before post time and went to the bar for a beer. After we got a round at the bar we moved towards the betting windows to place our bets when an announcement came over the loudspeaker: “Our computers are down. We are doing everything we can to fix the problem as soon as possible.” At this point it was about 35 minutes to post time and I was a little worried that we may not get our bets in. Word began to spread that the computers were down at OTBs all over the state, so calling a friend to place a bet was not an option. Fast forward 35 minutes and the computers were still down and the crowd was beyond restless. One jackass even tried unsuccessfully to get an “OTB sucks” chant going. Yeah chief, that’s going to get the computers fixed. With their computers down across New York State for the final 35 to 40 minutes to post before the Kentucky Derby, OTB lost out on a LOT of money, and thank God for that because after the gate opened I proceeded to watch not a single one of my horses even contend. In fact, at dinner later my buddy Rosie (who hasn’t slept on any girls’ floors lately) put it in perspective: “All of your horses finished behind the horse that died.” That they did.

Speaking of which, Eight Belles, the filly I said had no chance, finished second - well ahead of each and every one of my picks. I was WAY off. It appears I have still yet to figure out the females on the track as well as off of it. Tragically, however, Eight Belles broke both front ankles after her second place finish and had to be put down on the track. That news really is terrible, however as someone who always views the beer glass as half full, at least I won’t have to worry about being dead wrong (haven’t decided whether pun is intended) on her again in the Preakness.

In my defense, I did warn you that I didn’t expect to win, I was seeking value – even though it can (and should) be argued that I didn’t find value in the last place horse no matter what odds (30-1) I got on him. I conceded that Big Brown was the best horse in the race, I just felt there were enough negatives to justify picking against him at such short odds. Big Brown did prove to be the best horse in the Derby, overcoming the 20th post position and a four wide run around the first turn to smoke the field down the stretch in an impressive performance. He’ll be the favorite again in the Preakness and at much shorter odds and he’ll likely win. But I won’t bet on it.

If you would like to destroy me the way I deserve to be destroyed after handicapping the Kentucky Derby like an actual handicapped (mentally) person email me at mfh@subwaychatter.com or leave your comments below.