MFH brings you the most comprehensive Giants’ draft analysis this side of Mel Kiper…

This weekend is the NFL draft. It’s an exciting time for football fans, as it gives every team the chance to fill their most glaring holes and make a run at the postseason. The defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants (still feels great to write that) are not without their deficiencies. Although my friends and I will be sending my buddy Alvie off to Arizona with a day-long bar crawl on Saturday, I will try to remain lucid enough to follow the Giants’ first day in hopes that they will address their largest weaknesses so they can defend their title.

Safety is by far the biggest need for the Giants this year. Neither James Butler nor Michael Johnson is going to cut it at free safety. I would feel more comfortable with Don Johnson or the Butler Bulldogs’ mascot at safety. Cornerback and outside linebacker are their next largest needs. At corner Big Blue could be ok if Corey Webster plays like he did in the playoffs last season. However if he plays like he did at the beginning of the season they’ll need a lot of help. Either way, they could use some depth as Kevin Dockery, despite showing flashes of ability, has yet to fully prove himself and Sam Madison and RW McQuarters are straight old. At outside linebacker it’s a similar story. Gerris Wilkinson has shown signs of being able to handle a starting role, but has yet to show the consistency needed, while at the strong side, Mathias Kiwanuka looked confused making reads and was downright poor at pass coverage. He did, however, show some improvement from week to week until a broken leg ended his season.

The Giants are in the unenviable position of needing a safety in a year with a weak safety class. In fact, Scouts Inc. has safety rated as the weakest position in this year’s draft. If the Giants draft for need and get a safety in the first round, they will not be getting very good value. If they draft for value and wait to get a safety later, they could wind up with a big hole in their secondary. The general consensus is that the Giants will take Miami safety Kenny Phillips. I think he’s overrated and it would be a reach taking him in the first round. It may be in the Giants’ best interests to trade down a few slots and pick up an extra pick later on in what is a pretty deep draft overall. With a pick in the first half of the second round the Giants should still get one of the top two safeties in the draft (Phillips and Tyrell Johnson out of Arkansas St.) and could use the extra pick to address one of their depth issues at corner, wide receiver, defensive tackle, or offensive line. Here is a run down of some of the players the Giants could get in the first three rounds.

Safeties: Kenny Phillips (Miami): I’ve thought for a while now that he’s overrated and it seems now that NFL GMs and coaches are beginning to agree with me as he’s been sliding down draft boards lately. A lot of fans are calling him the next Ed Reed. Why? Because he happened to play the same position at Miami? I’m telling you right now, Kenny Phillips in no Ed Reed. Phillips is a great athlete, but he’s not quite the athlete Reed was coming out of the U, and Reed was more disciplined. Phillips makes a lot of false steps and misreads that get him out of position. In college he was able to use his speed and athleticism to recover from these mistakes, but the NFL is significantly faster and it is much more difficult to recover from false steps and misreads. At Miami, Phillips had a reputation of compromising the defensive scheme by being undisciplined and often being caught out of position. That is a KILLER mistake for a safety in the NFL. Word is Spags loves him though. I just hope that if the Giants use their first round pick on Phillips, Spags can teach him to stay disciplined and make the right reads.

Tyrell Johnson (Arkansas St.): I actually had Tyrell pretty even with Kenny Phillips early on and it now appears that the pros agree with me. This is good in that it provides evidence that I know what I’m talking about, but it’s bad in that I thought the Giants could get Johnson in the second round and now that looks less likely. Tyrell is an intelligent player and can be a leader in the secondary. He’s big and powerful and is a good tackler in space. He has good, but not great straight-line speed. I wonder about his agility change-of-direction ability to cover a quick receiver man up or in the deep third.

OLB: Jarod Mayo (Tennessee): This is the guy the Giants want. Although not likely, it is looking like a possibility that the Giants could nab him at 31. He has excellent size, speed, and athleticism. He locates the ball quickly and moves well laterally. He is an excellent run stopper and has proven to be more than adequate in pass coverage as well (both zone and man). Right now he is not very good at shedding blocks and still misses too many open-field tackles for a starting linebacker, but these are things that can be taught at the next level and his potential is phenomenal.

Dan Connor (Penn St.): Connor is physical, tough, aggressive, and disciplined. He has good speed and shows good lateral movement. Connor also does a good job keeping blockers off of him and is a very reliable tackler. He shows good ball skills but may not have the quickness or short burst to be truly effective in pass coverage. He could have trouble sticking with quick running backs. He has a tendency to play high which can cause him to get blown back against the run. He lacks the ideal quickness to change direction or turn and run. Connor has excellent natural instincts, but was an inside linebacker in college and is best suited to play middle linebacker in a 4-3 defense.
Tavares Gooden (Miami): Excellent athlete and a very good tackler. Has the skills to be good in coverage. His weaknesses are all correctable, but is he coachable enough and does he have the discipline to make the corrections? Could turn out to be an all pro, could also never see the field.

Xavier Adibi (Virginia Tech): Adibi is a good linebacker. He’s a good tackler and makes good reads, but he’s a little slow. He’s probably a safer pick than Gooden, but without nearly as much upside.

Corners: Brandon Flowers (Virginia Tech): I like Brandon Flowers, he does a lot of things very well. His combine 40 time was a little on the slow side, but his game speed is faster than the time would indicate. He is very quick with fluid hips and good change-of-direction in pass coverage and has shown great ball skills. He’s on the small side, but he has proven to be tough against the run.

There was a time when we thought Aqib Talib out of Kansas might be available at the end of the first round. That no longer looks very likely, however if he is still there he’s definitely ahead of Flowers, but not by as much as some would have you think.

Antoine Cason: Unfortunately Antoine won’t last until the Giants’ round 2 pick and he’d be a reach at 31, so in order to snag him the Giants would have to trade out of their first round pick and slide down into the first 10 slots of round 2, or pull the trigger on a Jeremy Shockey trade for a second round pick (more on that later). Cason is a tall corner who plays the ball well (so he’s the anti Corey Webster). He shows good speed and good footwork. Cason reads routes well and has displayed a good closing burst. Equally as important, word is that Cason is of high character and is a hard worker on and off the field. What keeps Cason from the first round is marginal open field tackling, stiff hips, and sub-par technique. His technique can certainly be improved, and if he can develop more fluid hips in the NFL, he could wind up being a steal in the second round.

Reggie Smith (Oklahoma): A big, strong, athletic corner. Has good agility and fluid hip movement. Very good open field tackler and sheds blocks well. He has average ball skills. Smith’s biggest negative is his lack of ideal top end speed. He doesn’t have the closing burst you like to see in a starting corner. He also has limited experience at corner and his technique shows it. Still, his size and athleticism are very good and technique can be taught.
Tyvon Branch (Connecticut): Great speed, quickness, and athleticism. He displays good fluidity in his hips, which, when combined with his quickness and speed means he can stay with NFL receivers in man coverage. Branch lacks instincts and doesn’t play the ball very well. He can bite on underneath routes leaving him susceptible to double moves. He needs to improve his tackling. His raw talent is undeniable and most of his negatives can be eliminated or minimized with good coaching at the next level, but the lack of instincts could prove to be a problem throughout his career.

Terrell Thomas (USC): Positives: Well-built, good top end speed, physical, good leadership skills and work ethic. Negatives: Injury concers, lacks fluidity in hips, below average ball skills, can be caught out of position. Bottom line: risky but tons of upside.

Later rounds:

Zach Bowman (Nebraska): Positives: excellent speed and size, good strength, good press technique, good ball skills, takes on blocks well. Negatives: Laundry list of injury troubles, lack of experience, can bite on double moves, a little stiff in the hips, needs to improve open field tackling.

WR: Donnie Avery (Houston): Wide receiver isn’t as pressing a need as safety, linebacker, or corner, but if this kid is still on the board when the Giants’ third round pick comes up he’ll be tough to pass on. He’s the electric home run threat the Giants passing game needs. At the Houston pro day he ran a 4.28 forty. When you combine that with a 6.3 three-cone and 3.91 twenty-yard shuffle (both of which substantially top everyone at the combine) you can see how Avery would be a perfect fit for the Giants’ number three receiver position. Avery is undersized and lacks ideal strength and also needs to improve his route running, but with his amazing speed and quickness he can be the player the Giants thought they were getting when they drafted Sinorice “I don’t deserve the last name” Moss in the second round two years ago. Unfortunately teams around the league are beginning to take notice of this kid, so although he was once considered a late third to fourth round pick, he may not last until the Giants pick at 95.

The draft plan: Although safety is the Giants’ most pressing need, if Jarod “don’t call me OJ” Mayo is available when their pick comes around they have to be salivating at the chance to grab a linebacker of his caliber. Then there’s still a decent chance Tyrell Johnson will be available for them in round two. If not, Reggie Smith or Tyvonn Branch should still be there. Either way, hopefully Donnie Avery will still be there in round three. If not, Terrell Thomas should still be there. If the Gaints go Mayo, Johnson, and Avery with the first three, Zach Bowman could be drafted with one of the Giants 3 sixth round picks and given a chance to surprise people.
If Mayo is off the board (and I suspect he will be), the Giants have to take the higher safety on their board – presumably Kenny Phillips. Hopefully he’ll prove me wrong and be a great safety in the NFL without providing locker room distractions. Then in round two I’d like to see the Giants take a shot with Tavares Gooden and go with either Donnie Avery or Terrell Thomas in round three.

The big talk among Giants fans is the possible dealing of Jeremy Shockey for a 2nd round pick (most likely to New Orleans). For the purposes of this article I will not take a position in the pro or anti trade camp, I will simply say that if such a trade goes down it makes the draft process significantly easier for the Giants. Suddenly they can address their three big issues within the first two rounds:

If Mayo is still there at 31, the Giants now HAVE to take him. Then they can come back with the 9th pick of the second round and get one of the two safeties. It’s possible they’ll both still be there, in which case they can grab Phillips, but at least one of them will definitely be there. Then with the 63rd pick they can come with Reggie Smith or Tyvonn Branch and then nab Donnie Avery in round three.
If my prayers are not answered and Mayo is off the board the Giants can get cute. They can draft Brandon Flowers at 31 if he’s available and then pick up one of the safeties at number 40. Then they can pick up Tavares Gooden with the 63rd pick and grab Avery in the 3rd. If Flowers is gone the Giants can pick up Phillips with 31, grab Antoine Cason with 40, and Gooden with 63.

After the draft the Giants had last year it’ll be tough to criticize anything Jerry Reese and Co. do this weekend, regardless of whether they follow any of the advice I laid out in this lengthy, well-researched article. Just please don’t draft another Ron Dayne.

Agree with me? Disagree with me? Leave your own thoughts on the draft below or email me at mfh@subwaychatter.com