I know what my calendar says, and I know what my 8th-grade Earth Science teacher kept trying to convince me of, but I don’t care– March 21st (or 22nd or 23rd) is not, I repeat not, the first day of Spring. Nope, winter officially comes to an end today or tomorrow (or yesterday if you’re a Braves or Nationals fan… and btw, what a way to open the season last night, no?) when the Yanks, and all of SC Nation’s respective favorite teams, take to the field for the ‘08 season. And, because we are the loud, obnoxious sports fans that we are here at Subway Chatter, there’s only one way to ring in the new baseball year, and that’s by telling you who’ll be doing all the winning and losing from here to October.
Before I get into my predictions for this year’s American League (be sure to check out Chuck Wipple’s NL Preview), I just wanted to take this opportunity to point out a couple of stats I dug up (without the help of the Elias Sports Bureau, thank you very much) that colored my view of what will go down in this year’s Junior Circuit: 1) Since 1996, only 5 teams have repeated as champions in their respective division– the ‘98-’06 Yankees, the ‘04-’05 Angels, the ‘02-’04 Twins, the ‘02-’03 A’s, and the ‘96-’99 Indians; 2) If you paid attention to the yearly trends there (aka the Yanks’ run of dominance interspersed with some other team’s more modest string of titles), you realize that there was a repeat division-winner in every season since ‘96… UNTIL last year, when NO team repeated as division champ (the Yankees appeared in both the ‘06 and ‘07 playoffs, but did so as the Wild Card participant last year as opposed to the Division Champion status they held for 9-straight seasons prior). So what do all these numbers mean? Basically, unless you enjoy ridiculous success like the Yanks have for the past decade-plus, it’s pretty freakin’ hard to win a division two-times in a row, let alone once. And, if there’s any game that remains true to its statistical underpinnings, it’s baseball. In other words, don’t count on the Sox, Indians, and Angels repeating as division champs. Here’s how I see everything else shaking out…
AL EAST
Yankees 96-66
Red Sox 94-68*
Blue Jays 84-78
Rays 81-81
Orioles 52-110
*– Wild Card
I know people are all chomping at the bit to write off the Yankees this year, but the fact remains that they still have the game’s best offense (I still think it’s a notch above Detroit’s), and with the subtraction of Roger Clemens and the additions of Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy, their rotation is considerably better. Plus, if Cashman and Girardi have half a brain (we at least know Girardi does), they’ll leave Joba in the ‘pen to set up for Mo, and it’ll be “Rivera & Wetteland” all over again… not to mention it’ll go a long way towards keeping Hughes and Kennedy right around 150-innings when they only have to go 5-and-2/3rds each time out. Now I’m not saying the young-uns won’t have their growing pains, but they can afford to when you’ve got guys like A-rod, Cano, Abreu, Jeter, and Posada lighting up scoreboards around the league. Plus, let’s be honest– if the Yanks didn’t fall behind by 14.5 last year, they would’ve won their 10th-straight division crown and people would be talking about them as World Series favorites again. With Joey-G at the helm, they’ll be a lot faster out of the gate this time around. As far as the Sox go, I just don’t see them being as consistently great this season as they were last year, though that’s not to say they won’t win the title again when everything’s said and done. They’ll miss Schilling in their rotation and clubhouse, and it seems to be lost on most that they’re relying heavily on two guys– Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz– who have just as much big-league experience as Hughes and Kennedy. If you want to write off the Yanks because of their youthful rotation, you can’t then go ahead and ignore it when the Sox enter the conversation. Still, based on talent alone, I expect both teams to be a factor come October. Oh right, there are other teams in this division– I like what J.P. Riccardi and Co. are doing north of the border, but after Scott Rolen misses his customary 20 - 60 games and A.J. Burnett visits the DL once, maybe twice, they’ll remember just how hard it is to compete with the Yanks and Sox. The Rays look good. Not playoff good, but .500 good. Which, for them, will be considered a monumental step forward. The Orioles? Most of their fans were at the Nats’ season opener last night and, considering the success (or lack thereof) that franchise has had since moving from Montreal, the fact that they’re already stealing fans tells you all you need to know about the sorry state of baseball in B-more.
AL CENTRAL
Tigers 97-65
Indians 90-72
White Sox 82-80
Twins 73-89
Royals 70-92
Most of the “experts” are trying too hard to find flaws with the Tigers. The main blemish they point to is their bullpen, which, admittedly, won’t be their strong suit so long as Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya aren’t available to protect Todd Jones from himself. Still, when was the last time the Yanks’ crappy bullpen cost them a playoff spot? Exactly. Sometimes, it really is as simple as having a ridiculous, 900-plus-run-scoring-offense and a Cy Young candidate (Justin Verlander) when it comes to winning your division. The big shocker here, though, are the Indians missing the playoffs. There’s no question they’ll be among the league’s elite come September, but I think they’re going to have a tough time bouncing back from that ludicrous choke job in the ALCS, which will lead to a sloooowwww start (i.e. ‘07 Yankees slow). But, unlike last year, there won’t be any weak-links at the top of the standings to fall back to the pack and hand the Indians a playoff spot. I know a lot of people like the ChiSox, but I’m not sure why. Their pitching is mediocre, their offense worse, and I just don’t see how they can even hold a candle to the Tigers and Indians. Minnesota won’t be as terrible as advertised, but when “terrible” means 65-wins, then it’s not time to get your hopes up either. There’s still a baseball team in Kansas City?
AL WEST
Mariners 93-69
Angels 90-72
A’s 74-88
Rangers 66-96
The Mariners are the American League’s version of the D-backs– they won’t hit much as much as you’d like them to, but they’ll pitch the sh*t out of the ball so it won’t matter. That said, they almost scored 800 runs last year, which is nothing to scoff at, and they added Erik Bedard to a rotation that already features Felix Hernandez. If pitching wins championships, it sure as hell will win this division. Speaking of which, the Angels’ rotation is pretty filthy in its own right, and it’s hard not to like them after they added Tori Hunter to protect Vlady Daddy in the lineup. The big concern here, though, is injured ace John Lackey, who’s on the DL until at least May with a right-triceps strain. Anytime you injure your pitching arm, it’s not a good thing… and, well, if I’m an Angels fan and I hear Lackey saying this: “I’m feeling better. I can brush my teeth with my right hand; I couldn’t do that a week ago,” then I’m starting to freak out just a little bit. The rest of the division doesn’t deserve mention, but here goes– Oaktown is rebuilding. If Rich Harden gives them 30 starts (highly unlikely), pencil them in for at least 5 more wins. Texas? A-rod will almost certainly eclipse Hank Aaron’s home run mark (hopefully someone will have the guts to strike Barry Bonds’ mark from the record books by the time A-rod gets close), but his biggest accomplishment might be single-handedly destroying the entire Rangers franchise. They’re still suffering the consequences of giving him almost a quarter billion dollars and then having to subsidize the Yankees for four years just to get him off their hands, and there’s no end in sight.
ALDS
Tigers over Red Sox
Yankees over Mariners
ALCS
Tigers over Yankees
WORLD SERIES
D-backs over Tigers
PS– Just so you all know where I’m getting the D-backs in the World Series from (and so I can get my NL picks on the record for added bragging rights), here’s how I see the NL playoffs breaking down: Braves (East); Cubs (Central); D-backs (West); Mets (Wild Card). NLDS: D-Backs over Mets; Braves over Cubs. NLCS: D-backs over Braves.
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