Many of you have been anxiously awaiting my pick for the Super Bowl, and with good reason. It is true that I ended the season with a nice profit from betting on the NFL. It is also true that I am 8-2 against the spread in the 2008 NFL playoffs. I must warn you, however, this may not be the ideal game to bet based on my pick, and here’s why: My friend Moose bet the same way I did. What’s wrong with that, you ask? You know how you have that friend that always seems to pick losers? You know, the guy who your other friends joke they should bet against on every pick and they’d make money? Well that guy would be considered extremely lucky when compared to Moose. He is the WORST at picking sports. People have actually made fortunes betting against his picks. Most people think Warren Buffet made his fortune investing in the stock market. What they don’t realize is that he made the majority of his riches calling up Moose, asking for a pick, and then betting the other way. True story. Moose is 0-5 betting the last 5 Super Bowls. Moose bet on Ohio St. in last year’s College Football National Championship game (I, thankfully, bet heavy on Florida). If that wasn’t enough, Moose bet Ohio St. again this year (again, I was on the other side). Moose is so bad, he picked the Red Sox to win the World Series in every year since his birth EXCEPT 2004 and 2007. Moose picked against Rocky in Rocky’s 2-5, even guaranteeing that Ivan Drago would knock out the Italian Stallion before the 10th round. Moose picked the Russians to beat the US, not in the actual 1980 Olympics, but in the movie “Miracle”. (ok, so maybe those last few are exaggerations, but I’m trying to hammer home the point that he is TERRIBLE at picking sports winners.)
So now, with that background to caution you against putting junior’s college tuition behind my expertise, I present you with MFH’s Super Bowl XLII pick:
Giants +11 ½
Here’s what you have to like as a Giants fan: the momentum Big Blue is riding into this Super Bowl is a big plus. I’ve heard it argued that the Patriots are riding momentum at least as strong because they’ve won 18 in a row. But, they were expected to win every one of those games; they were expected to coast to the Supe and just meeting expectations doesn’t build momentum in my book. Nobody thought the Giants would make any noise in the playoffs. In fact, they were heavy underdogs in their last two games. Winning games like THAT is what builds momentum, so the “Mo” edge has to go to the Giants. Another thing you have to like as far as the spread goes is what I’m going to call the “Power of 3.” The Pats have won three Super Bowls. They beat the Rams by 3. They beat the Panthers as heavy favorites by just 3. Most recently they beat the Eagles by…3. Anyone see a pattern developing here? In week 17 these same two teams battled it out in the most exciting week 17 game that didn’t have any playoff implications in the history of the NFL. In the end the Patriots squeaked one out. Who can tell me how many points the Patriots won that game by? Anyone? Bueller? That’s right, 3 points. It seems to me there’re some strong forces pushing this game towards a 3 point spread. By the way (and here’s another force), there are a lot of similarities between this Giants team and the Panthers team that lost by 3 to the Patriots in 2004. Both teams came in under the radar as surprise Super Bowl participants. Both quarterbacks have been questioned throughout the season but stepped up big time in the playoffs. Both teams have very solid defenses. And now, as the Panthers were in 2004, the Giants are double digit underdogs to the invincible Patriots. I don’t see why so many people think this game won’t be close. As referenced above, these two teams played each other just five weeks ago and the game was decided by a measly three points. Anyone who watched that game knows the score was no fluke. The Giants were not lucky to be in the game. Instead, they played as the Patriots’ equals. In fact, if not for a questionable-at-best illegal contact call on Corey Webster, the Giants most likely win that game. And few people will argue the fact that the Giants are better now than they were in week 17. Ahmad Bradshaw has really come into his own as a great compliment to Brandon Jacobs, Eli is playing like a real quarterback, and Plaxico just got done embarrassing one of the best corners in the league— Al Harris— in the NFC Championship. Add to that the fact that the Patriots have failed to cover in 8 of their last 9 games and you have to like the Giants to keep this thing in single digits.
Pretty convincing argument right? Well before you sell all your possessions and put the money down on the Giants, be warned: I was still feeling pretty good about my pick until I received terrible news, about the worst news one could get after making a bet. My friend J-Bomb GUARANTEED the Giants would cover the spread, and also picked them to win straight up. If you are new to the site, you may be wondering why this is such horrendous news. Let me fill you in: J-Bomb is the KISS OF DEATH when it comes to betting. When the Bills almost pulled off the upset over the Cowboys on Monday night in week 5 (and covered easily) guess who bet the Cowboys (and because of that my friend Franchise and I picked up a nice score in that game). Every horse he has ever bet on at the track has failed to win, and as Franchise puts it, most are still running! Moose is just bad at picking sports, much of the time I’m on the other side of his picks anyway, once in a while he can get lucky, so although his bet didn’t make me happy, it didn’t make me give up all hope like J-Bomb’s guarantee did. A bet from J-Bomb dooms any team in any sport to failure. In fact, I’m pretty sure J-Bomb bet Oklahoma in last year’s Fiesta Bowl against Boise State, and rumor has it he bet Georgetown heavy in 1985 against Villanova, despite being only three years old. Next year I may introduce the “J-Bomb predictor” to my NFL betting column because it is uncanny how accurate this predictor really is. So congratulations Patriots fans, enjoy the celebration. So Giants fans, if this game plays out similar to the Giants’ last Super Bowl appearance in 2001, I’ll give out J-Bomb’s email address so you can properly direct your anger and frustration.
Questions and comments can be emailed to mfh@subwaychatter.com, or just post ‘em below
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